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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. While not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.

The Evolution in Position & Settled Issues

Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite polling evidence indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While EU relations is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.

And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people by which young people can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines are still in place, there are ways to work around them. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Scepticism

Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. First, he believes any customs union agreement has been made much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from Europe.

An Alarming Document & Strategic Considerations

This strange and concerning document asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It contains only one reference of the UK, placed beside a proposal that the US government will intervene in our politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from concluding that this makes the US an undependable ally, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past

All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt for the leadership but merely an attempt to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a group of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Risk & A Wise Memory

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise of him to remember the impact that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.